High Probability Advisors provides financial planning, portfolio management for individuals and small businesses, portfolio management for institutions, pension consulting, selecting other managers, education planning, estate planning, and tax planning. Financial planning was provided to 251–500 clients last fiscal year.
High Probability Advisors reports 398 clients. They include 192 individual clients, 152 high-net-worth individuals, and 45 pension and profit-sharing plans. Of its assets, 96.1% ($1.01B across 808 accounts) are managed with discretion; $40.4M across 52 accounts are not. Of its clients, 1% are outside the U.S.
| Client type | Clients | Assets |
|---|---|---|
| Individuals (other than HNW) | 48% | 7% |
| High-net-worth individuals | 38% | 77% |
| Pension and profit-sharing plans | 11% | 14% |
| Charitable organizations | 2% | 1% |
Client breakdown and activity details
| Client type | Clients | Regulatory AUM | AUM share | Avg. per client |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Individuals (other than HNW) | 192 | $77.3M | 7.4% | $402K |
| High-net-worth individuals | 152 | $808M | 77.2% | $5.32M |
| Pension and profit-sharing plans | 45 | $146M | 14.0% | $3.25M |
| Charitable organizations | 9 | $14.9M | 1.4% | $1.66M |
| Total | 398 | $1.05B | 100% | $2.63M |
- Clients
- 192
- Regulatory AUM
- $77.3M
- AUM share
- 7.4%
- Avg. per client
- $402K
- Clients
- 152
- Regulatory AUM
- $808M
- AUM share
- 77.2%
- Avg. per client
- $5.32M
- Clients
- 45
- Regulatory AUM
- $146M
- AUM share
- 14.0%
- Avg. per client
- $3.25M
- Clients
- 9
- Regulatory AUM
- $14.9M
- AUM share
- 1.4%
- Avg. per client
- $1.66M
Total
- Clients
- 398
- Regulatory AUM
- $1.05B
- AUM share
- 100%
- Avg. per client
- $2.63M
- Clients outside the U.S.
- 1%
- Clients advised without assets under management last fiscal year
- 0
- Private funds advised
- 0
- Financial planning clients last fiscal year
- 251–500
High Probability Advisors charges 0.25%–0.70% a year for its Portfolio Management (Standard Fee Schedule). Each asset band is charged at its own rate. The fee is billed in advance or in arrears and is negotiable.
| Asset band | Annual rate |
|---|---|
| $0–$2M | 0.70% |
| $2M–$5M | 0.60% |
| $5M–$10M | 0.50% |
| $10M–$25M | 0.35% |
| $25M–$50M | 0.30% |
| $50M and above | 0.25% |
Fee details and sources
Stephen Carl owns 25% to 50% of High Probability Advisors. Stephen Carl is CEO; the leadership team includes Chief Investment Officer Michael Jones and Chief Compliance Officer Jeffrey Coons. It has 16 employees, 13 of them in advisory roles.
Staff
- 16 employees
- 13 in advisory functions
- 8 state-registered reps
- Owns 25% to 50% of High Probability Advisors, LLC
Stephen Carl
Control person · since August 2017
- Owns 25% to 50% of High Probability Advisors, LLC
Michael Jones
Control person · since October 2017
- Owns 25% to 50% of High Probability Advisors, LLC
Bonadio & Co, LLP
Control person · since August 2018
- Owns 5% to 10% of High Probability Advisors, LLC
Jeffrey Coons
Control person · since January 2020
High Probability Advisors’ regulatory assets grew 3.3× from $317M (March 2021) to $1.05B (May 2026); clients rose from 151 to 398 and employees from 9 to 16.
Figures from each annual filing
| Filed | Regulatory AUM | Clients | StaffEmployees | Offices |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026May 2026 | $1.05B | 398 | 16 | 4 |
| Feb 2025February 2025 | $813M | 341 | 13 | 3 |
| Feb 2024February 2024 | $680M | 296 | 13 | 3 |
| Mar 2023March 2023 | $542M | 262 | 10 | 3 |
| Jun 2022June 2022 | $459M | 198 | 10 | 3 |
| Mar 2021March 2021 | $317M | 151 | 9 | 1 |
Besides its headquarters, High Probability Advisors has 3 offices, with 4 listed addresses in 1 state.
New York · 4 listed addresses
- 167 Sully'S Trail, Suite 300, PittsfordHQ
- 6 Wembley Court, Albany
- 100 Corporate Parkway, Buffalo
- 432 North Franklin St, Syracuse
Contact and registration details
- Legal name
- High Probability Advisors, LLC
- Headquarters
- 167 Sully'S Trail, Suite 300, Pittsford, NY 14534
- Website
- highprobabilityadvisors.com
- Phone
- 585-485-0135
- @highprobabilityadvisors
- SEC file
- 801-111913
- Founded
- 2017
- Structure
- New York LLC
- Fiscal year end
- December
High Probability Advisors’ named custodians for separately managed accounts are Charles Schwab ($798M, 76%), American Trust ($140M, 13%) and Fidelity ($105M, 10%). High Probability Advisors has custody of $141K for 4 clients.
- Charles SchwabCharles Schwab & Co., Inc. · San Francisco, CA · $798M76%
- FidelityFidelity Distributors Company LLC · Smithfield, RI · $105M10%
- American TrustAmerican Trust Company · Pittsburgh, PA · $140M13%
At year end, High Probability Advisors’ separately managed accounts were mostly in funds (93%). Its reported 13F holdings for the quarter ended 30 June 2026 total $935M across 75 positions; the largest are Goldman Sachs ETF TR (12.5%), iShares TR (11.8%) and Dimensional ETF Trust (7.2%).
What the accounts hold
- Stocks4%
- Funds93%
- Registered funds91%
- Pooled vehicles2%
- Bonds2%
- Cash1%
How many clients does High Probability Advisors have?
High Probability Advisors has 398 clients and manages $1.05 billion for them, as of May 2026. They include 192 individual clients, 152 high-net-worth individuals, and 45 pension and profit-sharing plans.
Source: Form ADV Part 1A, Items 5.D and 5.F, filed 19 May 2026
What services does High Probability Advisors offer?
High Probability Advisors provides financial planning, portfolio management for individuals and small businesses, portfolio management for institutions, pension consulting, selecting other managers, education planning, estate planning, and tax planning.
Source: Form ADV Part 1A, Item 5.G, from the SEC's 2 October 2026 data file; Part 2A brochure, Item 4
How much does High Probability Advisors charge?
High Probability Advisors charges 0.25%–0.70% a year for its Portfolio Management (Standard Fee Schedule). Each asset band is charged at its own rate. The fee is billed in advance or in arrears and is negotiable.
Which custodians does High Probability Advisors use?
High Probability Advisors’ separately managed account assets are held at Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (San Francisco, CA), with $798M, American Trust Company (Pittsburgh, PA), with $140M and Fidelity Distributors Company LLC (Smithfield, RI), with $105M. Only custodians holding at least a tenth of those assets are named.
Source: Form ADV Part 1A, Schedule D, Section 5.K.(3), filed 19 May 2026
How many financial advisors does High Probability Advisors have?
High Probability Advisors has 8 investment adviser representatives registered with state securities authorities, out of 16 employees, and 13 perform investment advisory functions. None are registered representatives of a broker-dealer or licensed insurance agents.
Source: Form ADV Part 1A, Items 5.A and 5.B, from the SEC's 2 October 2026 data file
What does High Probability Advisors invest in?
At the end of its last fiscal year, High Probability Advisors’ separately managed accounts held 91% registered funds (mutual funds, ETFs, BDCs), 4% exchange-traded equities, 2% U.S. government and agency bonds, 2% pooled vehicles (private funds and similar) and 1% cash and equivalents.
Source: Form ADV Part 1A, Items 5.K.(1) and 7.B, from the SEC's 2 October 2026 data file
Who owns High Probability Advisors?
High Probability Advisors’ direct owners are Stephen Carl, Michael Jones, Bonadio & Co, LLP and Jeffrey Coons, each holding 50% or less.
Source: Form ADV Part 1A, Schedules A and B, filed 19 May 2026
How does High Probability Advisors get paid?
High Probability Advisors is paid through a percentage of assets under management. Its Form ADV lists no commissions or performance-based fees among how it is paid.
Source: Form ADV Part 1A, Item 5.E, from the SEC's 2 October 2026 data file
How do I contact High Probability Advisors?
High Probability Advisors’ main office is at 167 Sully'S Trail, Suite 300, Pittsford, NY 14534. Its phone number is 585-485-0135. Its website is highprobabilityadvisors.com.